What better way to start the new year than to consider for a moment all the things that could go terribly wrong this year, at least from the U.S. foreign policy perspective. That’s what the Council on Foreign Relation’s Preventive Priorities Survey: 2012 intends to offer. Culled from a “targeted group of government officials, academics and experts”, three tiers of possibility are mapped out:
Tier 1 – Contingencies that directly threaten the U.S. homeland, are likely to trigger U.S. military involvement because of treaty commitments, or threaten the supplies of critical U.S. strategic resources.
Tier 2 – Contingencies that affect countries of strategic importance to the United States but that do not involve a mutual-defense treaty commitment.
Tier 3 – Contingencies that could have severe/widespread humanitarian consequences but in countries of limited strategic importance to the United States.
Bonus Question: If you were a country in the leftovers of Tier 4, would you be relieved or nervous not to have made the list?